Severity:

40-70% of adult population will become infected. 1-2% will die, and people are in far more danger if over 65. There are many currently undetectable (and therefore undiagnosable) cases.

The virus will only begin declining after 40-50% of people become infected (and therefore millions die). We probably cannot delay the virus enough before a workable vaccine can be created.

Downstream consequences will be parade of horribles, including people being scared away from voting.

Explanation:

The transmission of viruses is similar to influenza, which we have numbers for. Lipsitch has used mathematical models to predict severity from the present state.

The models are created based on two factors (this is a serious oversimplification): (1) susceptible people interacting with infected people, and (2) infected people’s recovery rates. The models are based on an analogy to gas movement. Lipsitch use real data to add heterogeneity to the data.

Responses:

There are two categories of intervention: (1) isolation of cases (which he says won’t work alone), and (2) population level interventions, such as cancelling gatherings, schools.

The Chinese have done (2) quite well, allowing people to only go move around in public spaces in limited ways. They use an electronic-payment food delivery system, for example. The second is better because there are people that are asymptomatic (and undiagnosable) that can infect others.

Advice:

Accept the possibility of a very disruptive time. Get a 90 day supply of basic food/medication if you can. Visit ready.gov/pandemic for information on this. Demand better leadership from Trump and a more effective response.

-- AsherKalman - 13 Mar 2020

Some Links About Covid-9 Epidemiology

Can someone provide a summary of what those 25 minutes add to our knowledge?

This may be old news, but there's a containment area just up the road in New Rochelle. The National Guard are deployed to help with logistics, including food distribution and cleaning. Travel is still relatively unrestricted, and most businesses are still open. In that way, it seems similar to Italy's lockdown. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/nyregion/coronavirus-new-rochelle-containment-area.html

For a detailed analysis of the danger posed by Covid-19, I found this article helpful: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca It's relatively long, but worth taking the time to read in my opinion. The phrasing is intentionally a bit alarmist, but the analysis is quite good in my opinion. Here's a quick summary from the article: "When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away: The coronavirus is coming to you. It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly. It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two. When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways. Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die. They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies. The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today. That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now."

Finally, if anyone here prefers podcasts, Marc Lipsitch has a great short interview (25 min) on the "Deep Background with Noah Feldman" podcast. Dr. Lipsitch is the head of Harvard's epidemiology lab, and is the originator of the "40-70% of the adult population will likely get coronavirus" statistic.

-- JakeGlendenning - 12 Mar 2020

"As of early Thursday [3/12], at least 1,240 people in 42 states and Washington, D.C., had tested positive for the coronavirus and 37 people had died, most of them in Washington State. Diagnosed cases in three states — Washington, New York and California — account for more than 60 percent of the U.S. outbreak"

"President Trump said on Wednesday night that he was suspending most travel from Europe to the United States for 30 days, beginning on Friday, to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The restrictions do not apply to Britain"

"'The coronavirus is a global crisis, not limited to any continent and it requires cooperation rather than unilateral action,' ... 'The European Union disapproves of the fact that the U.S. decision to impose a travel ban was taken unilaterally and without consultation.'

Johns Hopkins maintains a widely-used virus tracker: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

-- SethGlickman - 12 Mar 2020

When offering links, it is good to offer context as well. If you describe what you are suggesting we read, and why, you begin the conversation in a useful place, rather than leaving it to someone else to do so.

It is good to keep digital as well as biological hygiene in mind. As the New York times reports today:

Chinese hackers exploit virus fears.

Over the past two weeks, two well-known Chinese state hacking groups have been baiting employees at large telecommunications companies and government agencies in Asia into downloading fake documents that purport to contain critical coronavirus information, three cybersecurity firms said.

Two California companies, CrowdStrike and FireEye, and the Israeli company Check Point confirmed this week that the Chinese groups were sending out coronavirus-themed documents loaded with malware. For now, the breaches have focused on targets in Vietnam, Mongolia and the Philippines.

FireEye reported that Russian hackers have been using legitimate coronavirus update documents to target entities in Ukraine, and North Korea hackers have used coronavirus information as bait to target a South Korean nongovernmental organization.

Security researchers worry the campaigns are an early warning for cyberattacks that could hit the United States. “We’re seeing cybercriminals and Chinese groups jump on coronavirus,” said Adam Meyers, the head of threat intelligence at CrowdStrike. “People need to be aware of what is coming.”

Before linking to coronavirus-related sites, please consider relaying information from trusted sources instead.

Can we link to public sources? This URL contains tracking information allowing Lexis to surveil the readers.

-- AsherKalman - 11 Mar 2020

https://www.coronatracker.com/

Effects:

https://advance.lexis.com/search/index?crid=369160b5-204e-4fa8-98fc-926802e62fc5&pdpermalink=19de7fb0-3149-47e2-aede-72c037d721fe&pdmfid=1000516&pdisurlapi=true

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