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KieranCoeFirstPaper 10 - 11 Jul 2012 - Main.KieranCoe
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| | | What Frank Could Have Foreseen | |
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< | Frank might be persuaded to qualify his position that fact-finding is inescapably subjective if he could live in a world of ubiquitous video recording. Ongoing rapid growth in video surveillance may someday progress so far as to substantially lessen the subjective nature of fact-finding. Future courts may aggregate sufficiently vast numbers of videos, each containing such large samples of data that fact-finding in the courtroom will begin to approach some semblance of the “Truth.” | >
> | Frank might be persuaded to qualify his position that fact-finding is inescapably subjective if he could live in a world of ubiquitous video recording. For the subset of courtroom proceedings that turn on recollections of visual evidence, there may be an available avenue to lessen the inherent subjectivity of fact-finding. Future courts may aggregate sufficiently vast numbers of videos, each containing such large samples of data that fact-finding in the courtroom will begin to approach some semblance of the “Truth.” | | | The Model | |
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< | If we postulate that objective reality as to events exists, then the Truth about any crime | >
> | If we postulate that objective reality as to events exists, then the facts related to any visualizable event | | | Why are you using
criminal process examples? They will distort your
analysis. | |
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< | can be represented as a random variable equal to a sequence of parameters, each of which is one element of observable objective reality. This is a gross simplification, but it allows for some intriguing suppositions. Every sensory observation of an event is essentially a sample of some parameters of the random variable called Truth. Meanwhile, Truth has an expected value calculated from the aggregation all of its parameters, which cannot all be sampled at once by any technology. | >
> | might be represented as a random variable equal to a sequence of parameters, each of which is one element of observable objective reality. Every optic observation of an event is may be considered a sample of a small portion of the parameters of the random variable containing all of reality. Hypothetically, our reality has an expected value calculated from the aggregation all of imperfect samples of its parameters. Although no single modern camera or even array of cameras could capture all available visual phenomena, not to mention critical unobservables like thoughts, feelings, or intents, the addition of any optic sensor adds some data to the fact-finding process. The critical question is whether that additional data can materially reduce subjectivity. | | | The distortion has
already set in. Some of the facts in some crime situations, like | | | actually turns out to mean a few less important truths
sometimes. | |
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< | Nevertheless, by the Law of Large Numbers, as the number of imperfect samples of Truth approaches infinity, the average of the results from all the samples will approach the expected value of Truth (NOTE: I am using the term "average" loosely). This means that given an infinite number of imperfect witnesses (samples), an adjudicator would be able to ascertain the Truth about any given crime. It also suggests that as there are more witnesses to any crime, the average of their observations will converge towards the Truth. | >
> | By the Law of Large Numbers, as the number of partial, imperfect samples of any population approaches infinity, the average of the results from all the samples will approach the population mean. For a narrow factual question that turned solely on visual evidence, This means that given an infinite number of imperfect witnesses (samples), an adjudicator would be able to ascertain the Truth about any given crime. It also suggests that as there are more witnesses to any crime, the average of their observations will converge towards the Truth. | | | So that things reported
by large numbers of eye witnesses are more likely to be true than |
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