Obama's Experience Problem

-- By AdamCarlis - 29 Feb 2008

Introduction

Concerns about Obama's experience introduced by Clinton during the primary will be amplified by McCain during the general election. Given Obama's resume, age, and race, it will be difficult for him to assuage voters' concerns about his readiness to govern; costing him potentially decisive votes.

The Experience Argument

The Meaning of "Experience"

"Experience" can mean any number of things and so it means precisely nothing. Therefore, it is a winning word for politicians crafting a message the masses can support. It works because it's vague. Its ambiguity allows voters to interpret the candidates' message according to their own worldview. When Clinton raises her own experience as a foil to Obama, Americans picture a young man not quite ready for the oval office. Voters are allowed to define the word and the speaker benefits. Despite legitimate questions about Clinton's experience, she has successfully painted Obama as inexperienced. In fact, "inexperienced" is the most common word voters use to describe him.

The Liability of Inexperience

In any election cycle, being viewed as inexperienced is a handicap. Because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failure of the Bush administration, that reality is heightened during this campaign. Security concerns drummed up since September 11 and a crumbling economy only increase the public's desire for an "experienced" candidate. Being seen otherwise will cost votes. Unfortunately for Obama, voters see McCain? as more experienced.

Experience in the General Election

Unlike Clinton, who could reasonably argue she has more experience than Obama (and potentially McCain, given her eight years in the white house), Obama cannot credibly claim the experience mantle in the general election. Instead, McCain’s lengthy time in Congress, popular military service, and nine additional months to hammer away position him to further entrench the nation’s questions about Obama’s readiness to lead. Additionally, McCain’s "maverick" persona allows him to acquire the experience mantle without being portrayed as a Washington insider or party crony. As a result, portraying Obama as inexperienced will be easier for McCain that it was for Clinton.

Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism

Obama's Inexperience

As Karl Rove has shown, all it takes to make a charge stick is a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a disciplined attack. Just as the Republicans questioned Max Cleland's patriotism and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's readiness for the job. Unfortunately for Obama, he lacks the "little bit of truth" necessary to effectively claim the experience mantle. Unlike during the Democratic primary, where real questions could be raised about Clinton's readiness, a head to head resume battle clearly favors McCain and could be Obama's undoing. His best hope in the general election will be to mitigate the damage of McCain? ’s attacks by shifting the focus while deemphasizing the importance of experience.

Thus far, Obama has tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." While perhaps "masquing treason," the voters have given him the benefit of the doubt. However, if the long campaign prevents him from dodging the issue altogether, even his best defense, a comparison to Lincoln, acknowledges his inexperience and could cost him votes.

Obama's Age

Voter focus on age, while an impediment to Obama during the Democratic primary, would be at least a draw during the general election; the issue's ability to entrench the perception of Obama as inexperienced is balanced by voters' hesitancy to elect a 72 year old president. In fact, fear of being portrayed as an aging Washington insider and Obama's surgical use of the term "half century of service" have forced McCain to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes experience. Old is the word voters most commonly associate with McCain and pundits are beginning to draw allusions to Bob Dole. If Obama can stay ahead of McCain? on the age issue, the experience argument is likely to be less damaging. While voter’s may still elect the inexperienced (George W. Bush comes of mind) or the young (JFK, Bill Clinton), they have yet to put someone in the white house who is both.

Obama's Race

In a nation with embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Passionate, intelligent, and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not. Just as race makes it easier for voters to believe Obama is inexperienced, it will make it harder for him to convince voters that he is ready to lead.

Additionally, voting on "experience" provides cover for people unwilling to vote for a black man. While most people who vote based on race wouldn't support Obama's policies in the first place, there are some Democrats and Independents searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. Whether they are the elderly white voters highlighted by the Times or the say one thing, vote the other way racists, these voters can use the experience issue to justify their discriminatory vote. This is not to say that, without the cover of experience they would bite their tongue and vote for Obama, but that they now have an excuse to justify their otherwise discriminatory vote.

Conclusion

Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment trumps lengthy experience and turn the age issue against McCain? . However, on race, to borrow from Ghandi, Obama is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, Obama will be waging an uphill battle to cast off the shroud of inexperience.

While he was able to stay afloat during the primary season, given the shifting demographics in the general election and the strengths of the McCain? campaign, overcoming the experience question may prove too high a hurdle.

• • I am worried that I am no longer saying anything interesting in this essay ...

- I think this might be moving in a better direction than your last paper. I think part of the danger with your topic is making it seem as if candidates are conspiring to put forth a racist argument. Obviously that's not only an inelegant summary of your point, but, well, not a summary of your point, since you make clear that you don't think any of this is (probably) some sort of evil master plan to play the race card. In any case, what I'm trying to say is that I think your paper rests on safer ground when it looks at what the voters are hearing, not what the candidates are trying to make the voters hear. Do other people agree?

Also, interesting sidenote: Clinton's "ready on day one" spiel? Allegedly stolen from McCain? 's website. -Amanda

• I really appreciate it, Amanda ... what do you think of the new draft? -- AdamCarlis 26 Feb 2008

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